Teoria Jocurilor - GameTheory

Teoria Jocurilor Și Negocierile Din Imobiliare

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Teoria jocurilor (game theory) dezvăluie complexitatea negocierii imobiliare, unde participanții, ghidați de raționalitate și emoții, caută echilibrul optim pentru beneficii individuale.

M-am confruntat recent cu o situație mai complexa în procesul de intermediere pentru vânzarea-cumpărarea unui teren format din mai multe loturi vecine cu proprietari diferiți. Pe scurt, formalizată, problema este următoarea:

  • T1, T2, T3 si T4 sunt patru loturi de teren de vânzare vecine, care formează un trup unic.
  • T1 aparține lui V1 si V2 in proporții α1 și α2.
  • T2 aparține lui V3.
  • T3 aparține lui V4.
  • T4 aparține în indiviziune lui V3 si V4 în proporțiile β1 și respectiv β2.
  • C este cumpărătorul terenurilor.
  • Q este agentul intermediar.
  • Cumpărătorul acceptă ca unică soluție cumpărarea “la pachet” a celor patru loturi, nu separat. Negocierile s-au purtat o lungă perioadă de timp doar prin intermediul Q, vânzătorii și cumpărătorul nu s-au întâlnit, nu au comunicat direct. Deci vânzătorii nu știu ce a vorbit Q cu C si nici C nu știe ce a vorbit Q cu V1, V2, V3 si V4.
  • În urma acestui proces, Q a reușit sa aducă argumente astfel încât V1, V2 si V4 să fie de acord cu un preț de P1.
  • De asemenea, în urma numeroaselor oferte pe care Q le-a prezentat cumpărătorului C (în zone cu prețuri semnificativ mai mari), C a ajuns singur la concluzia că terenul în discuție este cel mai valoros pentru scopurile sale și a făcut afirmații care sa-l îndreptățească pe Q să creadă că ar putea să ofere un preț P2.
  • V1, V2 ,V3 si V4 nu știu ca C ar putea oferi prețul de P2.
  • V3 vrea un preț P3 mult mai mare decât P2.
  • C nu este de acord să plătească diferențiat cei patru vânzători, chiar daca s-ar încadra în bugetul determinat de prețul P2.

Q vrea să poarte o negociere integrativă prin care vânzătorii și cumpărătorul ajung la un acord în care toate părțile au beneficii și sunt mulțumite de rezultat.

Problema din teoria jocurilor (game theory) constă în a găsi o strategie optimă pentru fiecare participant astfel încât să se maximizeze beneficiile colective sau să se minimizeze pierderile.

Teoria jocurilor (game theory) oferă instrumente pentru analiza și modelarea interacțiunilor strategice dintre participanți într-o situație de negociere. În problema dată, obiectivul ar putea fi găsirea unui echilibru în care atât vânzătorii (V1, V2, V3, V4) cât și cumpărătorul (C) să obțină beneficii satisfăcătoare. Iată câteva concepte și strategii din teoria jocurilor (game theory) care ar putea fi aplicate:

Această problemă poate fi abordată prin intermediul teoriei jocurilor strategice, care se ocupă cu analiza situațiilor în care deciziile unui jucător afectează deciziile celorlalți jucători. În acest caz, avem mai mulți jucători: V1, V2, V3, V4 și C (cumpărătorul), cu Q ca intermediar.

  1. Jocul de negociere: Q poate juca un rol crucial în stabilirea prețului final. El poate utiliza informațiile pe care le are despre prețurile pe care fiecare vânzător și cumpărătorul sunt dispuși să le accepte pentru a negocia un preț care să fie acceptabil pentru toate părțile. Acesta este un joc de negociere în care Q încearcă să maximizeze valoarea tranzacției pentru toate părțile.
  2. Jocul de licitație: O altă abordare ar fi ca Q să organizeze o licitație în care fiecare vânzător își propune un preț și cumpărătorul alege cel mai bun preț. Acesta este un joc de licitație în care fiecare vânzător încearcă să maximizeze prețul pe care îl poate obține.
  3. Jocul de divulgare a informațiilor: Q poate alege să divulge sau să rețină anumite informații pentru a influența rezultatul negocierilor. De exemplu, el poate alege să le spună vânzătorilor că cumpărătorul este dispus să plătească un preț mai mare, sau poate alege să nu divulge această informație. Acesta este un joc de divulgare a informațiilor în care Q încearcă să controleze fluxul de informații pentru a influența rezultatul negocierilor.
  4. Nash Equilibrium. Echilibrul Nash reprezintă o situație în care niciun jucător nu ar avea de câștigat dacă și-ar schimba strategia, având în vedere strategiile alese de ceilalți jucători. În acest caz, un posibil Echilibru Nash ar putea fi atins dacă toți vânzătorii (V1, V2, V3, V4) și cumpărătorul C ajung la un acord asupra unui preț care este acceptabil pentru toți. Acest preț ar trebui să fie suficient de mare pentru a satisface cerințele vânzătorilor, dar suficient de mic pentru a fi acceptabil pentru cumpărător. Cu toate acestea, existența unui Echilibru Nash nu garantează că acesta va fi atins în practică, deoarece acest lucru depinde de o serie de factori, inclusiv de informațiile disponibile pentru jucători, de abilitățile lor de negociere și de dinamica specifică a situației. De asemenea, în cazul în care există mai multe Echilibre Nash, nu este clar care dintre acestea va fi atins.

Teoria jocurilor (game theory) oferă un cadru pentru analiza strategică a interacțiunilor între diferiți jucători, dar nu oferă neapărat o soluție unică sau optimă pentru fiecare problemă. În multe cazuri, teoria jocurilor (game theory) poate identifica mai multe echilibre (sau rezultate) posibile, fiecare corespunzând unei anumite combinații de strategii alese de jucători.

În plus, este important de menționat că teoria jocurilor (game theory) este un instrument de analiză și nu un ghid prescriptiv. Teoria jocurilor (game theory) nu oferă ”soluția” problemei, cum ar fi rădăcinile unei ecuații. Ea nu spune jucătorilor ce să facă, ci mai degrabă le oferă un cadru pentru a înțelege cum ar putea evolua situația în funcție de deciziile pe care le iau.

Cum fiecare jucător are la dispoziție o infinitate de opțiuni posibile, o analiză folosind teoria jocurilor (game theory)  poate oferi niște direcții de urmat în negociere astfel încât să se ajungă la un Nash Equilibrium, deosebit de relevant în acest context. Acesta este punctul în care niciun jucător nu are un motiv de a-și schimba strategia, având în vedere strategiile celorlalți jucători.

Emoțiile jucătorilor (pentru că sunt oameni) pot juca un rol important și nu trebuie ignorate. Deși teoria jocurilor (game theory) se bazează în mare parte pe raționalitate și pe presupunerea că jucătorii vor acționa pentru a-și maximiza propriul beneficiu, în realitate, comportamentul uman poate fi influențat de o serie de factori emoționali și psihologici care pot devia de la raționalitatea pură. Prin urmare, în timp ce teoria jocurilor (game theory) poate oferi o perspectivă valoroasă, ea nu poate captura întreaga complexitate a negocierilor umane.

Dovada că emoțiile umane pot invalida într-o clipă orice analiză teoretică este faptul că după ce am făcut analiza de mai sus, toți vânzătorii s-au coalizat și au majorat prețul de la P1 la P3.

La achiziția unui teren poat aparea, în afară de problemele firești de negociere, și ale probleme. O parte din elel sunt evidențiate si comentate în articolul Probleme ce pot apărea la căutarea unui teren industrial

Puteti consulta oferta noastra cu terenuri intravilane AICI.

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  371. In distinction, the British, who trained the primary CLI/Gaurs (small, specialized units), supported French Indochina by way of their Drive 136, flew aerial supply missions for the airborne commandos, and delivered Tommy guns, mortars, and grenades from their Calcutta base.

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  372. New manager Danny Blanchflower was unable to avoid wasting Chelsea from relegation to the Second Division, and with monetary problems nonetheless affecting the West London membership, midfielder Ray Wilkins was sold to Manchester United for £750,000.

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  412. Beside the center is a “garden of glass”, put in by Joel Myers, on the shore of a small, man-made lake bordering the manufacturing facility, strewn with colorful glass shards which border a small trail that winds round part of the factory.

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  508. The Columbus Dispatch found a path of emails and financial institution statements that documented the connections between the AME and the varsity, which was initially established in an effort to offer opportunities to disadvantaged youth.

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